As at the 31st of October 2021
Observations from October.....
Turning the tables on last month, in October it was global stocks that led the way, the MSCI World bouncing back hard with a gain of 5%. US markets did a little better than that up 7%, the lift in the S&P 500 driven in no small way by the performance of EV maker Tesla (up 44% for the month!), becoming the latest member of the trillion-dollar-valuation club.
Outside of a solid gain in Aussie gold producers, and some pockets of strength within the technology sector, the local share market was weighed down by some dramatic moves on the bond market.
Last November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that they would commit $100 billion to buy government bonds, and would specifically target the 3-year part of the curve, the objective being to hold 3-year rates at 0.10%.
On the 29th of October the RBA stepped away from the market in 3-year bonds, effectively waving the white flag on yield curve control. The result was an almost 90 basis point rally in 3-year bonds and a 60 point rise on the 10 year.
Feedback from business owners, industry experts and our clients over the last month in particular, clearly paints the picture that higher costs are moving through the system. Wholesalers across almost all sectors, but particularly those connected to a global supply chain in China, are not getting commitments on delivery times. The next 6 – 12 months will be fascinating as the RBA appears committed to holding rates until wages growth moves into their target band of 3 – 4%.
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